Fig. 2

Recursive partitioning for MGUS progression. (A) A recursive partitioning algorithm used GS36 and clinical variables to define distinct clinically relevant risk groups. The low-risk MGUS patients were defined according to the following criteria: GS36 < 0.7. The high-risk MGUS patients were characterized as: GS36 ≥ 0.7, abnormal FLC ratio and decreased uninvolved immunoglobulins. An intermediate-risk group had a GS36 ≥ 0.7 but had an abnormal FLC ratio or decreased uninvolved immunoglobulins. (B) To test the accuracy of the UAMS MGUS risk model, we performed Kaplan–Meier analysis to identify the 10-year progression probability. The predicted values (or probabilities) of MGUS progression were 2.0%, 42.5% and 82.4% in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups respectively